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| MarketVIEW: Seasonal influenza + COMBO vaccines |
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Now updating for April 2026
Annual seasonal influenza epidemics typically affect 5-15% of the population with respiratory tract infections which can range from mild to severe, leading to death. On a global basis around 3-5 million cases of severe influenza illness are estimated each year with an associated 290,000 to 650,000 deaths (WHO figures). Annual influenza vaccination is the most effective method for preventing influenza virus infection and its complications. This remains especially relevant given the ongoing co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of co-infection with severe outcomes. Recommended groups for influenza vaccination are usually those most vulnerable and include the elderly, the very young, and those with underlying chronic diseases. In the US, influenza vaccination recommendations for some years have included every person >6 mos, and many countries are now also widening their recommendations to include additional groups including children.
With new WHO recommendations (February 2024) seasonal influenza vaccines transitioned to trivalent formulations (TIV and LAIV) following the disappearance of the B/Yamagata lineage from global circulation. Many developed Western markets also feature improved or differentiated influenza vaccines such as high dose (HD), cell-based, and adjuvanted formats. For the first time, in 2022, US ACIP recommendations took a preferential stance for differentiated vaccines in the >65 yrs elderly segment. mRNA-based influenza vaccines are on the cusp of market entry. Moderna mRNA-1010 (monovalent) has had its biologics licence application (BLA) accepted by the US FDA following an initial refusal-to-file decision (February 2026), with a PDUFA goal date of August 5, 2026. If approved, it would be the first mRNA influenza vaccine authorised in the US for adults >50 years. In Europe, the EMA CHMP issued a positive opinion in February 2026 recommending approval of mRNA-1083 (seasonal influenza/COVID-19) under the brand name mCombriax for adults >50 years. Approval was granted 20th April 2026. Despite these advances, significant debate remains about the commercial impact of mRNA influenza vaccines given US policy headwinds, ex-US pricing resistance and manufacturer pivots to non-nucleic based combinations.
This MarketVIEW product is a comprehensive MS Excel-based model (.xlsx) and Executive presentation (.pdf) that forecasts the potential demand volume and commercial value of seasonal influenza vaccines across 13 major individual Western and 37 emerging or rest of world (ROW) markets to now 2040. The model contains validated volume (mio doses) estimates for all recommended target groups per country based on a thorough investigation of national recommendations and policy and detailed country-specific vaccine coverage rates. Country market values are ascertained by a pricing methodology based upon public/private sector and actual transaction or realised prices for TIVs, high dose (HD), LAIV, and mRNA, where the differential impact of discounting/returns/rebates is explored. The analysis contains a detailed US forecast by product type and individual competitor including CSL Seqirus TIV (Flucelvax/Afluria) and MF-59 adjuvanted FLUAD, the Sanofi Pasteur SD and HD portfolio (including Fluzone-HD + Flublok), the GSK and AstraZeneca (LAIV) portfolios and pending mRNA products. An updated methodology is presented with demand by competitor/vaccine type analysis across the EU28 and broader 51 country region.
For research and development, key late-stage programs are assessed for market entry along with the new mRNA monovalent and COVID-19 combinations e.g., ModernaTX, mRNA-1010/1083, Pfizer PF-07252220/PF-07926307, GSK GSK4382276A/GSK5475152 and protein-based combinations e.g., Novavax/Sanofi*. Coverage of Cidara Therapeutics CD388/MK-1406 (now a Merck & Co asset; Phase 3 ANCHOR trial enrolment complete, primary efficacy data expected H2 2026) and Osivax OVX836 (Phase 2b Asuniva trial enrolment complete, topline results expected mid-2026) as potential market disruptors are assessed in detail. The potential impact of Viatris Influvac-HD is also reviewed.
MarketVIEW: Seasonal influenza vaccines is the ultimate up-to-date guide for this significant vaccine marketplace.
THE FULL PRODUCT IS A SUMMARY PRESENTATION (>675 slides, .pdf form) + MS-FORECAST MODEL (.xlsx) + MS-WORKBOOK (.xlsx)
*Sanofi rights are candidate dependent
To order please contact your region account manager, buy "on-line" or order direct at: orders@vaczine-analytics.com
*Prices quotes are for 1 region license only. Regions are North America, or EU or ROW.
For UK orders VAT will be added at 20%.
Please review the TERMS and CONDITIONS of purchase.
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