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MarketVIEW - Inactivated polio virus vaccines

Published: November 2013

Poliovirus a member of the Picornaviridae family has the potential to cause irreversible paralysis in children < 5yrs, with 5 to 10% mortality. Fortunately, the number of polio cases has decreased 99% since 1988, as a result of vaccination (WHO figures). Now only 3 countries (Afghanistan, Nigeria and Pakistan) remain polio-endemic in 2013, although polio free countries remain at risk of importation of wild poliovirus from these countries (Note: outbreaks in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya).

Much of the success in eradicating polio has been due to the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), launched in 1988 and coordinated by national governments and supranational partners such as the WHO, Rotary International, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), UNICEF and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Now the GPEI, GAVI and WHO are facilitating a switch from trivalent (Sabin) oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV) to a bivalent form (bOPV) and beyond that, the introduction of inactivated polio vaccines (IPVs) into global national immunization programs (NIPs).

This MarketVIEW product is a comprehensive commercial opportunity assessment detailing the potential market for IPV vaccines (stand-alone and DTP-IPV combinations) to 2030 across GAVI, Non-GAVI, India, China, Indonesia, Brazil, Existing IPV, Mixed OPV-IPV, OPV, (High-income and UMI) public markets. Three forecast scenarios are included BASE, FRACTIONAL and LOW where differing dose levels of IPV are explored. The report is written from the perspective of IPV producers who are faced with the pending decision(s) of supranational stakeholders whether to continue polio erradication with a "5 plus 1" strategy or hexavalent DTwP-Hep B-Hib-IPV vaccine. Domestic vaccine manufacturer (DVM) capabilities are discussed in terms of potential partnerships, technical issues and alliance activity to date. A case study of J&J/Crucell's PER.C6 IPV is included with revenue projections per market.

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